Crude Oil Commodity Intraday view if we check the performance of oil in the US, the DoE weekly inventory report and anticipation of increase in demand was the main driver behind price rise last week. The DoE showed crude stocks for week ended 9th May rose by 0.9 million barrels though product inventories fell. Gasoline stocks declined by 772,000 barrels whereas distillate stocks slipped 1.1 million barrels despite the cut in refineries output. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day with the demand for the commodity too showing moderate increase over last couple of weeks. As also stated earlier, as we enter into the summer driving season, which starts from 26th May; demand for the commodity would continue to increase and likely to drive oil prices higher.

As of early Asian trade, prices are trading marginally higher at the WTI though in India we are seeing divergent view as per the crude oil movement is concerned. Rupee movement in domestic markets has been the main driver for the commodity over past couple of sessions and we feel the similar stance is likely to hold in local markets for the day. While the expiry of May month contract may prompt shifting of volumes for the commodity, overall we feel local oil prices might continue to underperform the broad movement in the commodity basket. Hence, we have a distinct movement in Indian and NYMEX crude today wherein we buy NYMEX and sell MCX oil

Global Market Analysis: Asian markets have out of the sun its gain this morning while the overbought environment of Indian stock index perchance may drag the local share prices lower today in the intervening time Indian rupee might also dark a morsel gain. The USD index is trading well above 80 marks while the euro and the pound are trading steady at $1.3710 and $1.6828 respectively. Coming to crude oil, June futures are seen trading above $102 mark while the Brent has advanced to $110. We are seeing Brent rising in the recent past rapidly possibly due to Libya tension while WTI grade is managing higher. For the day we expect both the oil grades may trade higher so we suggest buying from lower levels. The WTI grade is expiring today in the domestic market while the same for June contract is expiring tomorrow. However locally, backed by Rupee factor, oil price are likely to continue underperform the international benchmark wherein we would suggest selling MCX oil for June contract. Economic data - We do not have much of important data today

Natural Gas Commodity intraday look we had a selling view in the commodity last day, prices extended its broad declining trend after the release of the weekly inventory tale. Nonetheless on Thursday, despite higher than expected increase in storage data by 105 BCF for the week ended May 9 prices at NYMEX saw a strong rebound probably a mark of short-covering after big sell-off in prices during earlier part of the day. Nevertheless, overall cues led by lower demand and higher stocks addition continue to prompt selling and we maintain our bearish view in the commodity.

Additional support on the short side comes with the fact that CFTC data for past week depicted hedge funds and money managers cut their bullish bets in NG during the week ending May 13. Net longs totalled 89,047 contracts, down 18.5% from net longs of 109,334 in the previous week showing moderate reduction in bigger bullish bets for the commodity. We are having a selling view in intraday in NG while feel continue appreciation in Rupee might further add to subdued trend in India.

Commodity Tips
Sell Crude Oil Mcx Jun on rise near 5975 sl 6015 Tgt 5925
Sell Natural Gas Mcx May on rise near 262 sl 267 Tgt 257