The seemingly ageless Mel Kiper, Jr. might have finally shown his age with the San Francisco 49ers’ first-round pick in his in his Mock Draft 4.0.

Kiper projected Oregon’s Arik Armstead to the 49ers with the No. 15 overall selection. It was the second straight mock where the Niners found themselves with the gargantuan defensive lineman in their midst.

Faux memory-loss issues aside, Kiper repeating his prediction from March 5th gave rise to questioning the validity of this pick.


Is Armstead really the right prospect for the Niners in the top half of Round 1?

To be sure, we’ve endorsed Armstead previously when fellow ESPN draft expert Todd McShay landed him in San Francisco in his Mock Draft 3.0. This beastly lineman certainly brings a whole lot to the gridiron table.

He’s an absolute physical freak who can wreak havoc in the trenches with his elite size and strength. Defensive ends just aren’t made very often with a 6’7”, 292-pound frame, 33” arms and explosive quick-twitch speed.

NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein even made the comparison to Calais Campbell, the Arizona Cardinals’ Pro Bowler who has compiled 44 tackles for loss, 43.5 sacks, and 33 pass breakups over his seven-year career.

Projection-based project with elite size and the traits to become a dominant run-stuffing defensive end in an odd front. Armstead has the explosiveness off the snap and in his jarring punch to gain early advantages and control offensive linemen.

Yet Zierlein also cautioned whichever team invests in this high-ceiling prospect.

Armstead is a fast riser but is still very raw. He will need patience and coaching and must become a more effective pass-rusher at some point…Power-based pass rush [only] with very little production to show for it over his time at Oregon.

Indeed, he totaled just four sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss, two pass breakups and one forced fumble in three collegiate seasons. Even a statistical-unfriendly position as a 3-4 end must produce bigger numbers.

As for his fit with the 49ers, here’s how Kiper explains his latest prediction:

Justin Smith isn't coming back, and Darnell Dockett is 33 and coming off a season in which he landed on IR with an ACL injury. Ray McDonald is also gone. Even if you like the current starters in San Fran, the depth chart isn't what it has been. While Armstead needs a lot of seasoning, he would be a good balance of hitting an immediate need and offering a lot of potential for the future. I'm not as high on him as Mr. McShay, who sees him as a top-10 talent, but this is a sensible landing spot. He's physically ready to help and should be able to provide a spark as a rotation player on the line. The thing with Armstead is there's no telling exactly what he'll become, so you really need to have a plan for him.

To that latter point, the 49ers surely have the right coaches in place.

New head coach Jim Tomsula has worked incredible magic with linemen in the past. He’s extracted maximum, if not Pro Bowl production from the likes of Smith, McDonald, Glenn Dorsey, Ian Williams and second-year players Tank Carradine and Quinton Dial last season.

Even the guy running the entire show will make time to coach up the positions he knows best, not to mention spending time with a special project like Armstead.

But considering the 49ers’ many needs—despite their fairly loaded roster—and the options still left on Kiper’s mock board, there was a better option out there.

And he came in the very next mock pick.

Outside linebacker Bud Dupree ran the third-fastest 40 among linebackers at the combine (4.56 seconds). He added a second-ranked 42” vertical and top-rated broad jump of 11’6”, showing his phenomenal combination of speed and lower-body explosion.

Dupree racked up 37 tackles for loss and 23.5 sacks in four seasons at Kentucky, not to mention a pick-six and two forced fumbles in 2014. That sack total ranked tops among all active SEC players as well

Most importantly, the 6’4”, 269-pounder would provide more immediate dividends to the Niners’ front seven than Armstead. He would push for the No. 1 backup job behind Aldon Smith and Aaron Lynch while also facilitating the release of the overpaid Ahmad Brooks.

In this ever pass-happy NFL, no team can have too many pass-rushers. And eliminating the threat at the source—i.e., the quarterback—is the best measure of defense.

To those who remain concerned over the state of the Niners’ thin corps of defensive backs, just pay heed to Mr. Kiper.

“Better secondary play typically starts up front,” Kiper said in his recent mock piece.

Touché, Mel—touché.