NASCAR Sprint Cup Odds and Predictions

While the weekend may mean football to the majority of sports bettors there is a growing segment of fans/bettors who look forward to the weekend for a different reason. Those are the motor racing enthusiasts, with NASCAR being the biggest attraction.

The NASCAR segment is likely to grow a bit starting this Sunday, as the 10-race Chase for the Sprint Cup series begins with the Chicagoland Speedway Geico 400.


The Chase for the Sprint Cup format was created in 2004 and has definitely added excitement to the series, as the Sprint Cup championship isn't settled until the final race of the year.

To have a shot at winning the Sprint Cup championship you have to be one of the 12 drivers in the Chase, so there are just a dozen drivers who can win the title.

While sportsbooks will post odds on each of the remaining 10 races individually, they have also posted odds on which driver will walk away with the Sprint Cup championship at the end of the year and that is what we will look at in this article.

All numbers are posted with the Money line so make sure you have an understanding of how that works.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Odds

Jimmie Johnson +300
Kyle Busch +350
Jeff Gordon +400
Carl Edwards +600
Kevin Harvick +700
Matt Kenseth +1000

Brad Keselowski +1000
Kurt Busch +1200
Denny Hamlin +1500
Tony Stewart +2000
Dale Earnhardt Jr. +3500
Ryan Newman +3500

Who Will Win the Championship?

The 12 drivers alive to win the Sprint Cup championship do not start out on equal footing and the drivers have between 2,012 points and 2,000 points.

The remaining 10 races will award points in the traditional NASCAR points method which will make it a bit more difficult for those trailing, but not insurmountable.

Entering the Sprint for the Cup races the top 12 drivers have their points set to 2,000 and those drivers in the top 10 receive three bonus points for each victory. The No. 11 and No. 12 drivers in the standings are considered Wild Card entrants and not eligible for the bonus victory points, which is why Keselowski has just 2,000 points despite winning three races, while Newman has 2,003 points with just one victory on the season.

The standings entering the Sprint for the Cup:
2,012: Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick
2,009: Jeff Gordon
2,006: Matt Kenseth
2,003: Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman
2,000: Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Brad Keselowski, Ryan Newman

Most non-NASCAR fans are aware that Johnson has been the man to beat in recent years and the California native has captured the past five Sprint Cup championships. He will be tough to beat in his Lowe's Chevrolet, which oddly enough is owned by Gordon.

Gordon is the one-time golden child of NASCAR, but hasn't won the series since 2001. He is the sentimental choice for many NASCAR fans, who would like nothing more than to see him recapture a bit of his previous glory with his fifth championship.

Kurt Bush may be the driver with the most talent in the field, but the 2004 champion has been plagued by inconsistency at times during his career and is a bit of a longshot, while Kyle Busch has never finished better than fifth.

Finding Value

When betting futures the key is finding value, so you won't always be wagering on who you believe will win, but instead be betting on those you believe have a better chance of winning than their odds. If you believe Kenseth has a 20-percent chance of winning and you are getting 10-to-1 odds, you have a good wager. If you believe Johnson has a 25-percent chance of winning but are just getting 3-to-1 odds you have no advantage.

When betting futures I tend to discount the favorites and look for value plays and this will be no different, as I'll take a stab on Kenseth to pull an upset. He has a pair of second-place finishes at Chicagoland and a good start to the Chase will be a big boost for his chances. He did win the whole thing in 2003 and has three other top-five finishes, so he is no stranger to pressure.